The view from the plush garden furniture arranged on the covered sundeck overlooking Lake Michigan is picture perfect America. White picket fences, expansive multi-story houses with Doric columns, and manicured lawns stretching down to a pebbly beach.
In the shallows of the water two young men are throwing an American football to each other. In the mid-distance motor boats sporting huge outboard engines move along the lake. Families gather around barbeques, tacos and sun-downers.
As dark begins to fall fireworks pop and scream from front yards festooned with every possible presentation of the stars and stripes. It is the long weekend of July 4th – a time to celebrate everything that is America and American.
And what is dominating discussions around the grills of upper middle-class America?
In a word (or two): Trump-Biden.
Since my arrival in the land of the large barely a meal or evening has passed without reference to the upcoming presidential election. The television running in the background talks of little else.
And if the topic was already smouldering in the early summer, Biden’s disastrous debate against Trump on June 27th has put a bellows to the fire of debate.
At issue - for Democrats - is what on earth to do about old Joe Biden. A well-meaning man, by the estimation of many, with a long and storied public-service record, he has clearly become a liability to both his party and his country.
As much as his moderation, his tenacity, and his Main Street America grit once appealed to voters, he is now derided for his stubbornness, his self-delusion and his incapacity.
It is almost universally accepted, even by his own supporters, that Biden is now approaching his dotage. Around 80 percent of Americans, the polls say, believe it is time for him to shuffle off into retirement.
There are three possibles paths ahead, but each of them is fraught with peril for the Democrats.
The first is that Biden remains the candidate amid a fading hope that come polling day on Nov 7 enough Americans will blanch at the thought of Trump the Terrible coming back to power that they will accord the incumbent another four years.
The second is that the aging sheriff either dismounts - or is unhorsed - and Kamala Harris, his unpopular deputy, hoisted into the saddle.
In recent days long articles in the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal and elsewhere have re-examined the performance and credentials of the vice-president. CNN flashes to political rallies where she is speaking.
One emerging theme – perhaps the most generous take – is that if Kamala Harris is unfettered and given free rein she will find her political touch.
Commentators talk about how since abortion policy was returned to the states by the US Supreme Court in 2022, Harris has slowly begun to find a coherent voice.
If Biden steps aside and publicly endorses Harris she will also inherit the mammoth campaign funds he has accumulated.
The third option would be for both Biden and Harris to step aside and for Democrats to pick a new candidate during the August convention in Chicago.
But many fear that if that happens there would be a bloodbath as progressives and moderates duke it out, leaving a fatally weakened Democratic Party and the stage clear for four more years of Trump.
Whatever political beliefs Americans hew to – and the divisions in this country are sharp - they agree on one thing: that the 2024 elections are as important as any in a generation.
Trump supporters say that the country is about to sink in a sea of unchecked immigration, crime and woke ideology.
Democrats believe that Trump would lead the country away from the institutions-based rule-of-law and make irrevocable changes to the architecture of American democracy.
Then there is the state of the world to consider: the war in Ukraine, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and China’s threat to Taiwan.
Who – in their right mind – would want Trump to take charge in these times, Democrats ask. Surely better wobbly Joe than demonic Donald.
When polling day comes here in Michigan the vote will split – this is one of a handful of battleground states that will decide the election - but, if chat over the cupcakes is anything to go by, the balance will probably go Trump’s way.
And what goes for Michigan, may well go for the US as a whole. The polls certainly seem to think so.
Enjoying the idyllic view over the lake the next day, feet resting on a generous cushion, I picked up one of the local papers – the Chicago Sun Times – and skimmed through the news.
The lead article was about the local Nascar car race being shortened due to heavy rain. There was another on negotiations with local teachers’ unions.
And then on page eight of the paper – where I was expecting coverage of new local businesses, missing cats or possibly lifestyle features - a half-page story caught my eye. “17 killed, 83 wounded during holiday weekend,” it read.
I thought this must be a short piece on the bloody attacks on Ukraine that Russia launched at the weekend, one of the worst in months. But, in fact, it was a news update on the toll of gun violence in the Chicago area, two hours drive to the south, over the holiday weekend.
To say that the US is a country of violent contrasts is the most well-worn of tropes.
But if a hundred dead and injured in south Chicago in gang violence in a long weekend fails to raise an eyebrow, then perhaps the prospect a geriatric slugfest for the most powerful job on earth should not surprise either.
But there are still four months to go till the presidential election. Watch this space.
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IN OTHER NEWS
+ We are now heading back to Europe for a few weeks after our spring season in Canada (when we had our record number of grizzly sightings!) For more on that see the latest post in my Grizzly Bear Diaries blog. We still have availability in October for what promises to be some great grizzly-bear viewing. Click here for a description of what we will be offering, and, if you are interested, please drop me a line.
+ Return to Kosovo, the documentary film I made with my daughter Emma, university friend Donald, and Leman, my wartime translator, will be premiered at the Kosovo film festival Dokufest in early-mid August. We will all be there. Please join us if you are in that part of the world.
Spot on