COMMENT/ANALYSIS
For many weeks now some commentators have been adamant that Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, was bluffing, even as his military slowly surrounded Ukraine. Others said that he wasn’t. The truth is, of course, that nobody knew for certain. And then, two days ago, the Russian leader seemed to make a decision, announcing that he will recognise the breakaway republics in the east of the country. Shortly afterwards Russian forces began entering the Donbas as “peacekeepers”. In this article, published on the Spectator’s website today, I consider what might happen next.
Russian troops, many apparently without insignia, began advancing into the disputed Donbas region yesterday. The question now is how much further they will go.
The Donbas rebels claim an area three times the size of the territory they currently hold. If Moscow were to try take control of the larger territory, it would mean overrunning the Ukrainian frontlines. It is unlikely that Kiev’s military can mount a serious defence if the Kremlin orders a full-scale attack.
The call to advance came in the form of a belligerent speech by Putin to the Russian people. In it, he strongly suggested that his aim was to reintegrate the country of 45 million into the motherland. Does that mean a full-scale annexation up to the Polish border?
So now we have Putin’s next step: full-scale invasion. Such a massive waste of time, lives and money.
The words of those who said he’s obsessed, paranoid, even slightly mad now seem more persuasive. He’s certainly myopic.
Last night as he ordered the attack, he hinted at the threat of nuclear war, saying, in words reminiscent of a cartoon supervillain:
“A few words to those who might be tempted to interfere in the unfolding events from the outside. Anyone who tries to hinder us and...create a threat for our country and our people must know that the response will be immediate and will lead to consequences that you have never faced in your history. We are ready for any scenario. All necessary decisions in this regard have been taken. I hope you hear me.”
It is highly unlikely that the West or anyone else will send in troops to defend Ukraine, or declare war like they did when Hitler invaded Poland.
That leaves sanctions. It would be a big step forward in human progress if sanctions were enough to induce Putin to withdraw troops from Ukraine and allow Ukrainians their self-determination. That doesn’t seem likely in the short term. But, say, ten years down the road, it might be enough to get his successor – presumably not a mad obsessive who’s been in power far too long – to let Ukraine be.
The West needs to play a long game here. It doesn’t have much choice, it’s the only chance it’s got, and the odds are on its side.
Fantastic, informative and on point, just love your writing Julius, refreshing honest journalism