Almost exactly 30 years after Bosnian Serbs began shelling Sarajevo, large European cities are once again being besieged. Sarajevo survived - but can Kharkiv, Mariupol and Kyiv?
Fully agree with you core analysis. I was confused why Putin ever thought the Russian Army could do this. They have only ever let him down and the proportion of conscripts may have changed but the quality is little changed from Chechnya. Indeed I would assume most of the better officers left in the Chechnya period leaving the present crowd of generals. Still since 2008 he gave the generals lots of money so they had little choice but to agree they could do this. He for some reason believed them. In Chechnya even after they had completed the bombardment it took a long time to assemble 42 MRD to get Grozny fully controlled. Ukraine is a much bigger task. It remains low probability but if the bombardment fails to dislodge eg Kyiv and if the Army falls apart which it might, Putin might well reach for tactical nuclear and thermobaric weapons. For the next few months Putin's actions in Ukraine look somewhat predictable. The bigger uncertainty is western reaction. We may think we are not at War with Russia but I strongly suspect Putin thinks we are; sanctions and weapons supply. At a min he will try some cyber attacks. A Times poll today shows their readers roughly split between stay out and sort this out - all very vague and unreliable. But still will western leaders who understand escalation risks be prepared to hold firm in the face of The Something Must be Done advocates while Putin levels Ukrainian towns? I doubt it and that is where the risks of escalation comes from.
At what point might president zelensky prove more effective by leaving the country and being the voice of the opposition from a neighboring country rather like de Gaulle leaving France for London after the fall of France? Or do you think his greatest contribution is to remain in Ukraine at the risk of being captured and silenced?
hi Julius, I was beginning to worry about as the days went by! super appreciate getting your perspective on goings on currently and historically. Be super safe my friend. keeping you in our thoughts from afar! Love Pauline
Fully agree with you core analysis. I was confused why Putin ever thought the Russian Army could do this. They have only ever let him down and the proportion of conscripts may have changed but the quality is little changed from Chechnya. Indeed I would assume most of the better officers left in the Chechnya period leaving the present crowd of generals. Still since 2008 he gave the generals lots of money so they had little choice but to agree they could do this. He for some reason believed them. In Chechnya even after they had completed the bombardment it took a long time to assemble 42 MRD to get Grozny fully controlled. Ukraine is a much bigger task. It remains low probability but if the bombardment fails to dislodge eg Kyiv and if the Army falls apart which it might, Putin might well reach for tactical nuclear and thermobaric weapons. For the next few months Putin's actions in Ukraine look somewhat predictable. The bigger uncertainty is western reaction. We may think we are not at War with Russia but I strongly suspect Putin thinks we are; sanctions and weapons supply. At a min he will try some cyber attacks. A Times poll today shows their readers roughly split between stay out and sort this out - all very vague and unreliable. But still will western leaders who understand escalation risks be prepared to hold firm in the face of The Something Must be Done advocates while Putin levels Ukrainian towns? I doubt it and that is where the risks of escalation comes from.
At what point might president zelensky prove more effective by leaving the country and being the voice of the opposition from a neighboring country rather like de Gaulle leaving France for London after the fall of France? Or do you think his greatest contribution is to remain in Ukraine at the risk of being captured and silenced?
hi Julius, I was beginning to worry about as the days went by! super appreciate getting your perspective on goings on currently and historically. Be super safe my friend. keeping you in our thoughts from afar! Love Pauline